U.S. Trade Representative Greer said Thursday that a deal with India is not close to completion, tempering hopes that a recent leader-to-leader conversation would unlock progress. The comment underscores how fragile the relationship between Washington and New Delhi has become after more than a year of friction over trade terms and energy policy.
At the center of the dispute is India's continued purchases of Russian oil, which has put the country in the crosshairs of U.S. trade policy. New Delhi is facing the possibility of tariffs as steep as 100% if it does not curb those purchases, a threat that would mark a dramatic escalation in trade pressure between the two nations. Such a move would hit one of the world's fastest-growing major economies and a key U.S. strategic partner in Asia, complicating ties that both governments have otherwise sought to deepen in recent years.
The stalled talks add a layer of geopolitical uncertainty for markets already weighing a mix of global crosscurrents, though U.S. equities showed little reaction Thursday. The S&P 500 edged up 0.2% to 7,666.45, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.04% to 50,926.56, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.04% to 26,871.60. All three indexes remain well within striking distance of their 52-week highs, with the S&P 500 sitting less than 2% below its peak of 7,816.70.
For investors, the India standoff is a reminder that trade friction hasn't disappeared even as markets have largely shrugged off tariff headlines this year. A 100% tariff threat, if it materializes, could ripple through sectors tied to Indian trade flows, from pharmaceuticals to technology services and textiles, while also complicating global energy markets already sensitive to sanctions-related supply shifts tied to Russia.
What happens next hinges on whether Washington and New Delhi can find common ground on the energy question before any tariff deadline takes effect. Greer's comments suggest that despite high-level diplomatic engagement, the two sides remain far from a resolution, leaving businesses on both sides of the Pacific - and investors tracking U.S.-India trade exposure - watching for the next round of negotiations or escalation.