With roughly 85 percent of ballots tallied, Likud and its allied parties are projected to secure 53 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, short of the 61 required for a governing majority. The outcome leaves Netanyahu in a familiar but precarious position: positioned ahead of rival blocs, yet unable to immediately claim a mandate to form a government.
Israeli politics has cycled through repeated rounds of inconclusive elections in recent years, with coalition-building often dragging on for weeks as smaller parties leverage their seats for concessions. Analysts tracking the current count say a similar scenario could unfold again, with horse-trading among religious, nationalist and centrist factions likely to determine whether Netanyahu can cobble together enough support or whether the country faces yet another trip to the ballot box.
The stakes extend beyond domestic politics. A prolonged coalition struggle would leave Israel's government in a holding pattern at a moment when the country is also managing a fragile truce in Ukraine's Kherson region unrelated to its own affairs, regional security questions, and diplomatic sensitivities following a deadly attack outside Israel's embassy in Belgrade. A caretaker or weakened government could complicate decision-making on security and foreign policy matters requiring swift responses.
Should the final tally confirm the bloc's shortfall, Israel's president would typically open consultations with party leaders to determine who has the best chance of assembling a workable coalition. Observers have floated several possible paths out of the deadlock, including a narrow unity arrangement, defections from smaller parties, or a fresh election if talks collapse. Past rounds of Israeli elections have shown that such impasses can take months to resolve, during which policy initiatives often stall.
Full official results are expected once the remaining ballots, including those from soldiers and Israelis living abroad, are counted in the coming days. Political analysts caution that final numbers could still shift seat allocations slightly, though a clear majority for either side appears unlikely based on the current trend. The coming weeks will test whether Netanyahu can again extend his tenure through coalition deals or whether Israel is headed toward its latest round of political uncertainty.